Endorsements by third parties like the journalists on the NACTOY panel are increasingly important in the car business, and the awards, now in their 20th year, have been growing in visibility. (Full disclosure: I am one of the 50 jurors). So it is not too soon to start handicapping the contest to see who the early favorites are.
Jurors are asked to drive and evaluate cars for factors like innovation, handling, performance, safety, and value for dollar. And like the members of the motion picture Academy, they are subject to their own predilections and interests. Critics have decried a hometown tilt by jurors, many of whom are based in Detroit. Executives at Toyota are still angry that the revolutionary hybrid Prius was passed over in 2001 for the cute but inconsequential Plymouth PT Cruiser for Car of the Year. (The snub was partly corrected when the next-generation Prius won the award in 2004).
In recent years, Car of the Year voting has shifted to a more international outlook (Volkswagen and Range Rover were winners in 2012), but it still favors the domestics. Detroit has won 10 awards, Asian automakers but four. Toyota's Camry, perennially the best-selling car in the U.S., has never won and has been a finalist only once.
This year, the short list is balanced but the betting here is that hometown pride will once again be the deciding factor in who wins North American Car of the Year. Here are 5 of the top contenders for the award.
Cadillac ATS
For years, General Motors has been trying, and failing, to build a car that could compete with BMW's 3 Series. The ATS is this year's fighter and has been scoring very well in road tests. Unlike other automakers, GM tends to get judged against itself -- how much better a new model is vs. the one it replaces -- rather than the competition. With all that in mind, the ATS is clearly "the best Cadillac ever."
Odds of winning: 3-1
Ford Fusion
The sophisticated design of the Fusion has made it a popular favorite since it was uncovered at the Detroit auto show last January. Ford CEO Alan Mulally is now a Motown legend, and the Fusion is considered the pinnacle of his One Ford strategy. All the reviews aren't in yet, but picking Fusion would be seen as a valedictory for Mulally's tenure at Ford.
Odds of winning: 3-1
Subaru BRZ/Scion FR-S
Enthusiasts at heart, Car of the Year jurors like to flaunt their inner boy racer by giving a boost to sports cars. The Chevrolet Corvette was a winner in 1998, and both the Pontiac Solstice and Nissan 350Z were voted finalists in the past. The Subaru and the Scion have received glowing reviews, but since they were jointly developed and are essentially the same car under the skin, they will likely split the vote.
Odds of winning: 6-1
BMW 3 Series
Year after year, BMWs populate more "Best Car" lists than any other manufacturer, and the 3-series is the gold standard of compact sport sedans. But this year's version has received only faint praise for its lack of breakthrough innovation, and jurors will be looking for other manufacturers to elevate to the pantheon.
Odds of winning: 9-1
Honda Accord
The last few years have been difficult for Honda, and industry observers are watching for signs of a turnaround. The Accord has never made it to the winner's circle, but jurors do like Hondas. This year's iteration, however, is more evolutionary than revolutionary, so it may be too soon to return Honda to its former stature.
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